Will the Democratic Party win the KY-02 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 8¢ reflects an extremely bearish outlook for KY-02, with an astronomical 2092% implied yield on the Yes side that signals either severe mispricing or genuine conviction that this Republican-leaning district is unwinnable for Democrats. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $35,810 in open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests the market is illiquid and potentially stale, making the extreme yield figures less reliable as true opportunity indicators. With 201 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 12, this appears to be a structurally lopsided market where the No side (Republicans) has priced in near-certainty, though the lack of recent trading activity raises questions about whether this reflects current sentiment or outdated positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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