Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Polymarket, closing November 30, 2026. This market shows significant bearish pressure with price declining 11 cents over seven days (76¢ to 67¢), yet the 67¢ level implies a still-elevated 67% probability for a Bernie endorsement of Talarico by November 2026.
Analysis
This market shows significant bearish pressure with price declining 11 cents over seven days (76¢ to 67¢), yet the 67¢ level implies a still-elevated 67% probability for a Bernie endorsement of Talarico by November 2026. The extremely high realized volatility of 684% and vol ratio of 7.24 suggest extreme uncertainty, while the lopsided implied yields (90.5% for Yes vs. 285.9% for No) indicate the market is pricing in substantial tail risk despite the current bullish lean. With 227 days to expiry and relatively thin liquidity ($9.9M open interest on $85K daily volume), this appears to be a speculative position on a niche political outcome with limited information flow (4.5 arrivals/hour) to justify the volatility.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election. If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.
Indicators
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Trade
sf trade 0x136a2773866c2d841b00652b7d99b026409c9a55db769c525ed450e04c653f23 yes 100