Will Belgium come in last place at Eurovision 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Belgium come in last place at Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing May 16, 2026. Belgium's 4¢ price reflects a genuinely low probability of last place, but the 29,743% implied yield on "Yes" signals extreme mispricing or illiquidity distortion—the $3.2M open interest against just $42.4 daily volume suggests thin order books amplifying the yield calculation.
Analysis
Belgium's 4¢ price reflects a genuinely low probability of last place, but the 29,743% implied yield on "Yes" signals extreme mispricing or illiquidity distortion—the $3.2M open interest against just $42.4 daily volume suggests thin order books amplifying the yield calculation. With 29 days to expiry and a 6¢ spread, this market lacks sufficient liquidity to trust the current price as a reliable probability estimate, and the 5,709% realized volatility indicates wild swings that may reflect sporadic, large orders rather than genuine conviction about Belgium's Eurovision prospects.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
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sf trade 0x15273fe3871657e01752075423dc0ffae957554d6263cb28913138785623a9be yes 100