Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?

This market is pricing in a 34% probability of an RBA hold in May 2026, with the "No" outcome (rate change) heavily favored at 66% implied probability. The 17¢ spread is notably wide relative to the $102.8k daily volume and $570k open interest, suggesting thin liquidity despite the market's moderate size. The extreme implied yields (3477% for Yes, 1100% for No) and 865% realized volatility indicate significant uncertainty with only 19 days to expiry, though the recent price movement from 28¢ to 36¢ suggests modest recent repricing toward the hold scenario.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.

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