Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club: O/U 3.5

Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club: O/U 3.5. This contract trades at 38¢ on Polymarket, closing April 24, 2026. This illiquid market shows extreme yield metrics (10,737% on Yes, 4,389% on No) driven by minimal trading activity—zero volume in 24 hours despite $823.86 in open interest and an 8¢ spread.

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38¢
Bid/Ask 36/40¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $2,520.697·Closes Apr 24, 2026·1d remaining
0x16f022571a93a1705c9a0935433c79f0b759d604d194bbc026fb19b3748507c1
7-day price5 snapshots · 3 regime
40¢38¢ current
Apr 1938¢Apr 22

Analysis

4d ago

This illiquid market shows extreme yield metrics (10,737% on Yes, 4,389% on No) driven by minimal trading activity—zero volume in 24 hours despite $823.86 in open interest and an 8¢ spread. The 39¢ price implies only a 39% probability of over 3.5 goals in an upcoming Saudi Professional League match, which seems conservative for a soccer total, though the neutral regime score (0.5) and low cliff risk (2) suggest the market hasn't identified obvious catalysts. With just 5 days to expiry and no recent price discovery, this appears to be a stale, low-conviction market where the extreme yields reflect illiquidity rather than genuine opportunity.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming Saudi Professional League game between Al Fateh Saudi Club and Al Khaleej Saudi Club, scheduled for April 24 at 11:45 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Al Fateh Saudi Club and Al Khaleej Saudi Club combine to score 4 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 4, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on slstat.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 47452.3%
IY (No) 17825.5%
Adj IY 23726%
CRI 2
Overround 2.2%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)47452.3%
IY (No)17825.5%
Adj IY23726%
CRI2
Overround2.2%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 5:58:24 PM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 5:53:23 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x16f022571a93a1705c9a0935433c79f0b759d604d194bbc026fb19b3748507c1 yes 100

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