Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
40%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$51
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
940 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before Jan” vs “Where will Mohamed Salah go next”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before Jan
Cluster 2
Where will Mohamed Salah go next
Where will Mohamed Salah go next?: Any Saudi Pro League Club
KXJOINLEAGUE-26OCT02MSALAH-SAUDI
Analysis
The 41% probability reflects market estimates that at least one of these Saudi football-related outcomes will occur by their respective deadlines. The primary driver is uncertainty around Saudi Arabia's geopolitical positioning and its willingness to attract global sports talent through financial incentives. Market pricing suggests traders view Saudi normalization efforts and player transfers to the Saudi Pro League as moderately likely but not favored outcomes. The main catalyst would be any major diplomatic announcement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which could shift probabilities substantially. Additionally, confirmed player transfers or contract negotiations during the 2026-2027 transfer window would directly impact market expectations around athlete movement to Saudi clubs.
- ›Saudi Pro League's recent spending capacity and player acquisition patterns indicate willingness to target high-profile international talent
- ›Current geopolitical tensions between Israel and Saudi Arabia create uncertainty about timeline and likelihood of normalization
- ›Transfer window activity in summer 2026 and January 2027 will provide concrete data on actual player movement to Saudi clubs
- ›Kalshi contract volumes show higher activity on longer-dated normalization scenarios (2029) versus shorter-term outcomes, suggesting base-rate skepticism
- ›Market prices across three related contracts show 41-60% range, indicating disagreement about which specific outcome is most probable
What moved the line
- Jun 23Any Saudi Pro League Club↓7pp60→53¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Saudi Arabia↓4pp12→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Saudi Arabia↑3pp7→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Saudi Arabia↑3pp10→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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