What is the current probability for "Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 68¢ (68% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 246 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 69.7% and 314.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 68% probability that Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?. This contract trades at 68¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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68¢

Bid/Ask 39/98¢·Spread 60¢·Vol $130.18·OI $131.875·Closes Dec 31, 2026·246d remaining

0x16f8fc62c90a5fd7ff053fd23b1900884e59ad677b68c01f4df7a780c4081cc5

7-day price750 snapshots · 4 regime

73¢68¢ current

Apr 846¢Apr 28

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 69.7%

IY (No) 314.8%

Adj IY 315%

CRI 2

RV 736%

VR 7.62

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	69.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	314.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	315%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	736%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	7.62	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	6.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

60¢

Computed

4/28/2026, 3:23:53 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/28/2026, 3:23:40 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x16f8fc62c90a5fd7ff053fd23b1900884e59ad677b68c01f4df7a780c4081cc5 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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