Who will Trump meet with in 2026
Leader sits at 80% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 68%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ahmed al-Sharaa
Outcomes
14
winner-take-all
Runner-up
68¢
Mohammed bin Salman
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$24K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
195 days
Venue
Polymarket
14 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will Trump meet with in 2026
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Lai Ching-te
0xe9d59a…5940
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Ahmed al-Sharaa
0x6fb581…1d45
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Vladimir Putin
0xc57bc9…7081
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Mohammed bin Salman
0x1d64e8…c63b
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Kim Jong Un
0xb53954…18fc
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Yoon Suk Yeol
0xe05a7b…b9b0
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Changpeng Zhao
0xfad216…0a40
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: iShowSpeed
0xea1490…a509
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Jair Bolsonaro
0xd79182…432c
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Nicolás Maduro
0xc05743…8fb3
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Nick Fuentes
0xb94be4…bf15
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Aleksandr Lukashenko
0x9a59e1…02a2
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: MrBeast
0x498ffa…92ce
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Pope Leo XIV
0x01d0f2…a9ea
Analysis
The 95% probability reflects traders' belief that Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at some point during 2026. This price suggests market participants view such a meeting as highly likely given current U.S.-China diplomatic patterns and Trump's stated foreign policy priorities. The probability is driven primarily by two factors: Trump's historical engagement with Xi and the ongoing importance of U.S.-China relations in international affairs. A downward shift would require either a major diplomatic rupture, health constraints preventing travel, or an unexpected shift in geopolitical tensions that makes such a meeting politically unfeasible. The key catalyst remains any formal announcement of a scheduled meeting or state visit, though the market is already pricing in a near-certain outcome before any such confirmation. Notably, Putin meetings trade substantially lower at 55%, suggesting traders view Xi engagement as considerably more probable than other major-power bilateral meetings in 2026.
- ›Trump's previous engagement with Xi Jinping as sitting president and his stated focus on U.S.-China relations as a policy priority
- ›The typical frequency and scheduling of presidential bilateral meetings with major powers throughout a calendar year
- ›Current geopolitical stability between U.S. and China relative to other potential bilateral relationships
- ›Any public statements or diplomatic signals from either administration regarding planned high-level meetings in 2026
- ›Health, travel logistics, or domestic political factors that might prevent Trump from attending scheduled international summits
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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