Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 61% probability that Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 61¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. Victor Marx is priced at 63¢ with extremely high realized volatility of 612% and a dramatic 40% price surge over seven days (45¢ to 63¢), suggesting significant recent information arrival at 0.9 events per hour.
Analysis
Victor Marx is priced at 63¢ with extremely high realized volatility of 612% and a dramatic 40% price surge over seven days (45¢ to 63¢), suggesting significant recent information arrival at 0.9 events per hour. The market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $15.6k open interest, creating a dangerous environment where the 2¢ spread masks potential execution challenges. The asymmetric implied yields (290% for Yes vs. 841% for No) and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 2 indicate market participants are pricing in substantial tail risk, likely reflecting uncertainty about Marx's viability as a candidate or competitive dynamics in the Colorado Republican primary with 74 days to resolution.
Also on kalshi at 61¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Colorado, scheduled to take place on June 30, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Colorado Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Colorado Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x0b94b4e361a4797c94c4802dec1080f7d60005c04885a8930e931e62b12ea879 yes 100