Will Apple (AAPL) close above $190 end of April?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,059.3 in open interest, suggesting the 90¢ price may not reflect true consensus with only 11 days to expiration. The massive 19¢ spread and wildly divergent implied yields (358.7% for Yes versus 29,052.8% for No) indicate severe pricing inefficiency, likely driven by minimal trading activity rather than genuine uncertainty about AAPL closing above $190. With a Cliff Risk Index of 9 and the market frozen at 90¢ for seven days, this appears to be a stale, illiquid position where the high probability pricing may not hold if volume returns near resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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