Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?

The market is pricing Republicans as overwhelming favorites at 92¢ with a tight 1¢ spread, reflecting Tennessee's strong Republican lean, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (15.9% vs. 2099.6%) signal severe illiquidity on the "No" side with only $21.98 in 24-hour volume. The high Cliff Risk Index of 12 and massive risk-adjusted yield of 1050% suggest this market lacks sufficient depth for confident contrarian positioning, making the extreme "No" yield more a liquidity artifact than a genuine opportunity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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