Will SBF appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?

The market has collapsed 41% over seven days (from 29¢ to 17¢), suggesting deteriorating odds for SBF's appearance, though zero 24-hour volume indicates thin liquidity and potential staleness in pricing. The 29¢ bid-ask spread represents 171% of the current mid-price, an exceptionally wide gap that reflects low trading activity and high uncertainty; combined with $694k open interest, this suggests the market may be illiquid despite meaningful notional exposure. The extreme 642% implied yield on "Yes" positions and 3,107% realized volatility signal this is a highly speculative, low-confidence market where the 17¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the information arrival rate of only 2.2 signals per hour over 259 days remaining.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade