Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year above $20B FDV?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $3.1M open interest, suggesting the $0.22 price may not reflect true consensus given the wide 6¢ spread. The 498% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high relative to the 260-day timeframe, indicating either substantial skepticism about a 2026-launched coin reaching $20B FDV or potential underpricing given historical precedent (Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all achieved this valuation). The recent 12% price decline over seven days combined with neutral regime conditions and moderate cliff risk suggests this market may be repricing downward, though the lack of trading activity makes directional conviction difficult to assess.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any token launched in 2026 ends the year with an FDV above $20B. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” A token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable to be considered launched. The FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The token price used will be the “Close” price on CoinGecko for December 31, 2026, as shown in the token’s historical data (e.g., Hyperliquid: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hyperliquid/historical_data). Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

Indicators

Regime

Trade