Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $80 end of April?

This market is heavily skewed toward Yes at 90¢, implying Netflix will close above $80 with near-certainty, yet the extreme 28,762.8% implied yield on No positions suggests severe mispricing or structural inefficiency. With only $977.21 open interest and a 20¢ spread against just $25.49 in 24-hour volume, liquidity is critically thin, making the high probability potentially unreliable. The 11-day window to expiry combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 9 indicates elevated volatility risk, and given that NFLX would need to drop roughly 12% from typical trading levels to breach $80, the 90% probability warrants skepticism without confirmation from other venues.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

Indicators

Regime

Trade