Will the Democratic Party win the NC-12 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (93%) for Democratic victory in NC-12, yet the No side offers an extraordinary 2,416.8% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns on the contrarian bet. With zero 24-hour volume despite $30,067 in open interest and 201 days to expiration, this appears to be a stale, low-liquidity market where the extreme No yield reflects minimal trading activity rather than genuine market conviction. The 1-cent spread and neutral regime score indicate the market lacks recent price discovery, making the 13.7% Democratic yield potentially more reliable than the distorted No-side numbers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade