Will Kyoji Horiguchi be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Kyoji Horiguchi be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. Horiguchi's championship odds have tripled from 2¢ to 6¢ over seven days, yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume and an unusually wide 8¢ spread, suggesting thin liquidity despite $372k open interest.
Analysis
Horiguchi's championship odds have tripled from 2¢ to 6¢ over seven days, yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume and an unusually wide 8¢ spread, suggesting thin liquidity despite $372k open interest. The 2216.8% implied yield on the yes side is extreme and likely reflects the low base probability rather than genuine edge—typical for long-shot binary outcomes with minimal trading activity. With 258 days to resolution and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative position with limited price discovery rather than an actively traded market.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
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Trade
sf trade 0x1b0d72d17beda3f048989a9db1a497b73fa1c9f717d45653688d02e19c24efc0 yes 100