Will Arman Tsarukyan fight Charles Oliveira next?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Will Arman Tsarukyan fight Charles Oliveira next?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Polymarket, closing March 1, 2027. The 30¢ price reflects a 30% probability that Tsarukyan faces Oliveira next, but the extreme 267% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with a massive 59¢ spread suggests significant uncertainty and thin liquidity ($4.02 daily volume on $106k open interest).
Analysis
The 30¢ price reflects a 30% probability that Tsarukyan faces Oliveira next, but the extreme 267% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with a massive 59¢ spread suggests significant uncertainty and thin liquidity ($4.02 daily volume on $106k open interest). The realized volatility of 294% and recent 3¢ price decline over 7 days indicate this market is highly sensitive to UFC announcement news, with the 0.6 hourly info arrival rate suggesting traders are actively monitoring fighter matchup developments.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Charles Oliveira is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Charles Oliveira is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Charles Oliveira is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
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sf trade 0x1be24cc9e97c426d4df74e9a6bcc1ed2efe089a1cc4ff3af0a09ba467aa7fb6f yes 100