Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?

The market is pricing only a 19% probability that Anthropic avoids an IPO by end-2027, implying an 81% chance of going public within 624 days. The "Yes" position offers an extreme 249.5% implied yield, but this is paired with exceptionally high realized volatility of 931% and a concerning 4.0 cliff risk index, suggesting the market has experienced sharp reversals and may lack reliable pricing stability. The recent 6-cent price decline over seven days (25¢ to 19¢) combined with modest $599.99 daily volume and $7.4k open interest indicates thin liquidity that could amplify moves, making the high yield potentially illusory rather than a genuine risk-reward opportunity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Indicators

Regime

Trade