Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 69% probability that Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?. This contract trades at 69¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The 78¢ price reflects strong consensus that a Trump-MBS meeting is highly probable in 2026, yet the market shows extreme asymmetry with a 501.7% implied yield on the "No" side versus 39.9% on "Yes," suggesting significant tail-risk hedging demand despite the lopsided probability.
Analysis
The 78¢ price reflects strong consensus that a Trump-MBS meeting is highly probable in 2026, yet the market shows extreme asymmetry with a 501.7% implied yield on the "No" side versus 39.9% on "Yes," suggesting significant tail-risk hedging demand despite the lopsided probability. Liquidity is thin at just $25 in 24-hour volume against $9.5M open interest, and the 589% realized volatility combined with an 8.66 vol ratio indicates this market has experienced sharp price swings that may not reflect fundamental changes in meeting likelihood. With 258 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the modest 3¢ spread and steady 75¢-to-78¢ price movement over seven days suggest the market has stabilized, though the high information arrival rate (5.6/h) means geopolitical developments could quickly shift positioning.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x1d64e87444a527dc7363c4c4f9b1ba3d4096944d4e15f98ebb0c6ec065efc63b yes 100