Will the Republican Party win the CA-13 House seat?

The Republican contract at 27¢ reflects a heavily Democratic-favored district, but the market shows concerning illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $7,567.66 open interest, making the 496% implied yield on the Yes side potentially misleading given the thin order book. The extreme 712% realized volatility and 2.45 vol ratio suggest price discovery is unstable, and with 199 days to expiry, the market may lack sufficient participation to accurately price this race until closer to the election. The neutral regime score and modest 0.7 info arrivals per hour indicate limited market attention, so this contract should be treated cautiously for position-building despite the attractive yield figures.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade