Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $40,500 (LOW) by April 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $40,500 (LOW) by April 30?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This illiquid micro-market shows extreme pricing distortion with a 90¢ spread and only $8.84 open interest, creating an implied yield exceeding 3,100% that reflects severe market dysfunction rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market shows extreme pricing distortion with a 90¢ spread and only $8.84 open interest, creating an implied yield exceeding 3,100% that reflects severe market dysfunction rather than genuine probability assessment. The 46¢ price has surged 44% over seven days amid zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the last trade may be stale or the market lacks meaningful participation to validate current pricing. With 14 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 1, any actual trading could cause sharp repricing, making this unsuitable for serious capital allocation.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Audemars Piguet Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x1e46cf4f89fcd202dd5cbec613fed213d9706e0bb02a266282828aed940af35f yes 100