Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
Prediction markets currently give a 91% probability that Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?. This contract trades at 91¢ on Polymarket, closing June 17, 2026. This market is pricing an extremely high probability (88%) that the Fed will hold rates steady across three consecutive FOMC meetings through June 2026, but the asymmetric implied yields reveal significant tail risk—the "No" side offers a staggering 4,341% annualized return versus just 80.7% for "Yes," suggesting traders expect a sharp repricing if the Fed deviates from this pause scenario.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely high probability (88%) that the Fed will hold rates steady across three consecutive FOMC meetings through June 2026, but the asymmetric implied yields reveal significant tail risk—the "No" side offers a staggering 4,341% annualized return versus just 80.7% for "Yes," suggesting traders expect a sharp repricing if the Fed deviates from this pause scenario. The 7-day price movement from 82¢ to 88¢ indicates growing conviction in the pause narrative, though the elevated realized volatility (124%) and cliff risk index of 7 suggest this consensus could unwind quickly around FOMC announcements. With 62 days to expiry and modest 24-hour volume of $3.4M against $19.3M open interest, liquidity is adequate but not deep, making large position exits potentially costly.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
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Trade
sf trade 0x221e0b7d9646f5a4262509e8c4c856299c422e21571018dcb3d5bd288d70afd0 yes 100