Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

The 30¢ price implies United Russia will fall short of 355 seats, a significant threshold that would represent a supermajority loss from their current 324-seat position. The extreme 543.5% implied yield on the "Yes" side suggests substantial mispricing or genuine uncertainty about whether the ruling party can gain 31+ seats in a potentially volatile 2026 election, though the thin $68 daily volume raises liquidity concerns for position sizing. The modest 2¢ spread and neutral regime score indicate relatively stable market conditions, but with 157 days to expiry, geopolitical or domestic political shifts could dramatically shift probabilities.

Resolution rules

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

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