Will Steven Elliott be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $46.4K, with zero 24-hour volume and a punishing 39¢ spread that makes meaningful trading difficult. The 1188% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with a realized volatility of 2416% and 9.13 vol ratio suggests either severe mispricing or very thin order books reacting to sparse information arrivals (3.0/hour). The price has declined 16% over seven days to 21¢, and with the nomination deadline just 109 days away, the market appears to be pricing Elliott as a significant underdog, though the extreme yield metrics warrant caution about treating this as a reliable probability estimate given the illiquidity constraints.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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