Cambria FDV above $40M one day after launch?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $41 in 24-hour volume against $1.6M open interest, creating a 22¢ spread and likely unreliable pricing. The 95.3% implied yield on the Yes side paired with 2,319% realized volatility suggests the 40¢ price may not reflect true probability, especially given the token hasn't launched yet and the market has only seen modest price movement from 25¢ to 40¢ over seven days. With 625 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal market depth rather than a well-calibrated prediction.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cambria's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

Regime

Trade