What is the current probability for "Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 13¢ (13% implied probability) on Polymarket. 69 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3555.4% and 79.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket.

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13¢

Bid/Ask 11/16¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $543.485·OI $17,552.635·69d remaining

0x274cec202608757e62a0cf64ec63a3a814a6cc23a1bff1819b437362c5c16732

7-day price422 snapshots · 31 regime

34¢13¢ current

Apr 87¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3555.4%

IY (No) 79.4%

Adj IY 3555%

CRI 7

RV 694%

VR 1.33

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3555.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	79.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3555%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	694%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.33	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 7:12:47 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 7:08:33 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x274cec202608757e62a0cf64ec63a3a814a6cc23a1bff1819b437362c5c16732 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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