Will CA Bucaramanga win on 2026-04-25?

Prediction markets currently give a 64% probability that Will CA Bucaramanga win on 2026-04-25?. This contract trades at 64¢ on Polymarket, closing April 25, 2026. This market exhibits severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $221,708 open interest and an unusually wide 60¢ spread, suggesting the 52¢ price may not reflect true consensus.

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64¢
Bid/Ask 62/66¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $1,018.044·Closes Apr 25, 2026·3d remaining
0x29144a7572be779917cdb956be7b63b5c2a0604470a7f65dd96a17d18d67b0c4
7-day price137 snapshots · 5 regime
68¢65¢ current
Apr 1846¢Apr 22

Analysis

2d ago

This market exhibits severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $221,708 open interest and an unusually wide 60¢ spread, suggesting the 52¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The astronomical implied yields (6029% for Yes, 7076% for No) are artifacts of the extreme spread rather than genuine opportunities, and the 642% realized volatility indicates highly unstable pricing in a market closing in just 6 days. With a Cliff Risk Index of 1 and only 1.6 information arrivals per hour, this appears to be a stale or abandoned market where the price discovery mechanism has broken down.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25, 2026 If CA Bucaramanga wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 7565.0%
IY (No) 26091.5%
Adj IY 24487%
CRI 2
RV 502%
VR 0.52
▶ Full indicator table (10)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)7565.0%
IY (No)26091.5%
Adj IY24487%
CRI2
RV502%
VR0.52
IAR1.4/h
EE15.000
Overround0.0%
LAS0.06

Regime

Label
taker
Score
0.625
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 9:50:03 AM
SF edge 15.0¢ yes

Edges (1)

NO +15¢thesis — US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest deployment since 2003. Pacifi
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 9:38:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x29144a7572be779917cdb956be7b63b5c2a0604470a7f65dd96a17d18d67b0c4 yes 100

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