What is the current probability for "Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 3¢ (3% implied probability) on Polymarket. 69 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 17177.8% and 16.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket.

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3¢

Bid/Ask 1/5¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $14,082.679·69d remaining

0x2cb2e201c613cc950599f8d440315a3125f6a3679f41f798ada974387f0a7ac5

7-day price62 snapshots · 1 regime

5¢3¢ current

Apr 112¢Apr 20

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 17177.8%

IY (No) 16.4%

Adj IY 8589%

CRI 32

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	17177.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	16.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	8589%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

maker

Score

0.295

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 7:11:04 AM

Observability noneEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 7:08:33 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x2cb2e201c613cc950599f8d440315a3125f6a3679f41f798ada974387f0a7ac5 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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