Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?

This market has already resolved to "Yes" based on documented evidence from January 13, 2026, yet the price remains at 24¢ with $13,645 in open interest, suggesting significant liquidity lag or potential platform settlement delays. The extreme 448% implied yield on the "Yes" side and minimal 1¢ spread indicate traders are aware of the resolution but the market hasn't converged to its terminal value of near 100¢. With 258 days until the December 31 close date, this appears to be a settlement or information efficiency issue rather than genuine market uncertainty.

Resolution rules

Donald Trump showed the middle finger to an individual heckling him at a Minnesota Ford plant on January 13 (see: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip). This market will resolve to “Yes” if photo or video evidence shows Donald Trump giving the middle finger to anybody else by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying video or photo must show Donald Trump raising his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in the gesture commonly referred to as “flipping the bird”. Evidence must show Trump making the gesture in a context that could reasonably indicate it is directed at a person or group, even if it does not indicate so definitively. Past instances such as Donald Trump showing his middle finger at a Black History Month event (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-middle-finger/4654155) or while speaking to female astronauts (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-flips-off-women-astronauts/4823553) would both count. Photo or video evidence of Trump extending his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in a context which in no way indicates that the gesture was intentional or directed at an individual or group will not count. AI-generated images or video will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo or video evidence of Donald Trump raising his middle finger.

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