Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $5,020 open interest and a wide 12¢ spread, suggesting the 19¢ price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $5,020 open interest and a wide 12¢ spread, suggesting the 19¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 473.8% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the 42.3% No yield, indicating either severe mispricing or market participants pricing in substantial tail risk around a potential Trump pardon. The 2020% realized volatility and 7.76 vol ratio, combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 3, suggest this market has experienced dramatic price swings and faces binary event risk, making the current price potentially unreliable for decision-making given the illiquidity.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xbde10fc985687f35034b62df6cd50adbe835dcf08a36a93c4c695ed75777e32c yes 100