Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
0xfb013a43c6ea97f5af4515baefbefdc2a9cfeca1d764aa9f3ce1f6bd93002dfe · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 260 days remaining
Price
Cross-venue · kalshi
Same outcome trades on Will Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027? · match confidence 0.83 · close-time delta 39h
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 528.8% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 37.4% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.14 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 461% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.86 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.7/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 453% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
131 indicator snapshots · 17 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xfb013a43c6ea97f5af4515baefbefdc2a9cfeca1d764aa9f3ce1f6bd93002dfe yes 100