Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1700.00 and 1799.99 at the end of December 2026?

The 18¢ price implies only an 18% probability that the ARS will trade in the 1700-1799 band by end-2026, despite Argentina's current official rate hovering near 1000 ARS/USD, suggesting the market is pricing in substantial further depreciation of the peso over the next 258 days. The extreme 645% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 20¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity and potential mispricing, while the 523% realized volatility reflects the Argentine peso's historical instability. With a Cliff Risk Index of 5 and an information arrival rate of 0.9/hour, this market carries significant tail risk around central bank policy decisions and inflation dynamics that could dramatically shift probabilities closer to resolution.

Resolution rules

This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/). If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date. The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Indicators

Regime

Trade