Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?

This market shows a 61% probability of an RBA rate increase at the May meeting, but the extremely thin liquidity of just $1.24 in 24-hour volume and $724 open interest raises serious concerns about price reliability and execution risk. The massive implied yield spread (1250.5% for Yes vs 3059.3% for No) and elevated realized volatility of 184% suggest significant uncertainty, though the modest 2-cent price decline over seven days indicates relatively stable sentiment despite the high volatility. With only 19 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, traders should be cautious about the low liquidity environment, which could result in poor fills or slippage if attempting to trade this position.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.

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