Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 48% probability that Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?. This contract trades at 48¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $8.7M open interest, suggesting the quoted 14¢ price may not reflect true market consensus and the 869% implied yield on "Yes" is likely a mispricing artifact rather than genuine opportunity.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $8.7M open interest, suggesting the quoted 14¢ price may not reflect true market consensus and the 869% implied yield on "Yes" is likely a mispricing artifact rather than genuine opportunity. The 7-cent spread is substantial relative to the 14¢ price, and the extraordinarily high realized volatility (2200%) combined with a cliff risk index of 6 indicates this market has experienced dramatic price swings, possibly from thin order books rather than fundamental news flow. With 258 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of only 3.3 signals per hour, traders should be cautious about the reliability of any position given the combination of illiquidity, high volatility, and minimal recent trading activity.
Also on kalshi at 30¢(Δ +18¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x30efbe1580dacf2bf87a89bdb1015e3f3398f8bc7e4453210e83bbdbb0f621b9 yes 100