Will the Democratic Party win the OK-04 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3,456% implied yield on the Yes side, reflecting the 5¢ price in a heavily Republican district where Democrats have virtually no historical viability. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $13.6K open interest and a 2¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable and subject to significant slippage on any meaningful trade. With 201 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in near-zero Democratic chances, though the lack of trading activity suggests this may be a stale or abandoned position rather than a genuine consensus view.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade