Will the Republican Party win the IL-07 House seat?

This market is pricing Republicans at just 5¢ for IL-07, implying a 95% Democratic hold probability, which aligns with the district's strong Democratic lean. The extreme 3,469% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the deep underdog odds, though the zero 24-hour volume and $20k open interest suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings on any significant political development. With 200 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, this appears to be a stable long-term positioning market rather than an active trading venue, making the current price more reflective of fundamental district dynamics than market microstructure.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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