Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat?

The Republican contract at 81¢ reflects strong confidence in GOP retention of Indiana's 5th district, though the extreme 778% implied yield on the No side signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing of the Democratic outcome. Volume of just $985 over 24 hours against $13.1M open interest suggests this market lacks sufficient trading activity to validate the steep probability gradient, and the recent 3¢ price decline over seven days may indicate early uncertainty despite the heavily skewed odds. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this remains a relatively early-stage market where Democratic recruitment or unexpected political shifts could rapidly repriced the contract.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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