Will Apple (AAPL) close above $240 end of April?

The 90¢ price reflects an extremely high implied probability that AAPL closes above $240 by month-end, yet the asymmetric yields—349.7% for Yes versus 28,323.8% for No—signal severe mispricing or concentrated long positioning. With only 12 days to expiry and a 4¢ recent decline from 94¢, the market appears overconfident despite modest $93.6K daily volume and a concerning Cliff Risk Index of 9, suggesting potential sharp repricing if Apple reports weakness or broader market volatility emerges. The 6¢ spread is reasonable given liquidity constraints, but the extreme No-side yield indicates sophisticated traders may be positioning for a downside shock that the consensus price hasn't adequately discounted.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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