Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?
Prediction markets currently give a 63% probability that Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?. This contract trades at 63¢ on Polymarket, closing June 3, 2026. The market is pricing Chun Jae-soo as a heavy favorite at 80¢ with a tight 2¢ spread, but the extreme 3,112% implied yield on "No" positions signals severe illiquidity on the downside—typical for long-shot bets with minimal backing.
Analysis
The market is pricing Chun Jae-soo as a heavy favorite at 80¢ with a tight 2¢ spread, but the extreme 3,112% implied yield on "No" positions signals severe illiquidity on the downside—typical for long-shot bets with minimal backing. With 47 days to resolution and only $2.2K in 24-hour volume against $13.6K open interest, the market lacks depth to absorb significant position changes, and the 202% realized volatility combined with a 4.0 cliff risk index suggests price could move sharply if new information emerges about Chun's candidacy or opposition consolidation.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Busan mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Busan. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. If the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
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sf trade 0x3b7db2dbb3b47a6a532849ee3edd147d16fec311af4f40329f1ea8c45feb60b9 yes 100