Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

The market is pricing Democrats at a slight majority 57% probability to win Ohio's 2026 gubernatorial race, with a tight 2¢ spread indicating reasonable liquidity despite modest $931k daily volume. The asymmetric implied yields—137.7% for Yes versus 242% for No—suggest the No side offers substantially better risk-adjusted returns (121%), potentially reflecting underpricing of Republican strength in this traditionally competitive state. With over $47M in open interest and neutral regime conditions, this appears fairly balanced but warrants monitoring for shifts as the 2026 election cycle intensifies.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

Regime

Trade