Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $42,250 (HIGH) by April 30?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 63,881% implied yield on the YES side, suggesting the 4¢ price may be artificially depressed and not reflective of true market consensus. With only $2,830.40 in open interest, a 2¢ spread, and 14 days to expiration, any significant price movement could trigger substantial slippage, making this a high-risk venue for both entry and exit. The 3,127% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 24 indicate this market has experienced extreme price swings historically, though the neutral regime and flat 7-day price action suggest current stability masking underlying uncertainty about whether the Audemars Piguet Index can appreciate roughly 8-10% from current levels by month-end.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Audemars Piguet Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.

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Regime

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