Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing October 31, 2026. The Brewers' 3¢ price reflects a 3% implied probability, which is reasonable for a mid-tier MLB franchise, though the extreme 5991.5% implied yield on the Yes side signals this is a classic long-shot lottery contract where the risk-reward is heavily skewed.

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3¢
Bid/Ask 3/3¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $5,961.052·OI $121,982.203·Closes Oct 31, 2026·192d remaining
0x3db74f14fa0c4d8acb19ff4ffa18d523597a8e553ec565d494290a908d99395a
7-day price22 snapshots · 123 regime
3¢3¢ current
Apr 92¢Apr 18

Analysis

4d ago

The Brewers' 3¢ price reflects a 3% implied probability, which is reasonable for a mid-tier MLB franchise, though the extreme 5991.5% implied yield on the Yes side signals this is a classic long-shot lottery contract where the risk-reward is heavily skewed. With $120,964 in open interest and $52,484 in 24-hour volume, liquidity is moderate but the zero spread indicates tight pricing on Polymarket. The 197-day timeframe to October 2026 expiry provides ample time for team performance and injury developments to shift sentiment, though the neutral regime score (0.341) and stable 7-day price action suggest the market has settled on a consensus valuation for now.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 6133.9%
IY (No) 5.9%
Adj IY 3067%
CRI 32
Overround -0.2%
LAS 0.00
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)6133.9%
IY (No)5.9%
Adj IY3067%
CRI32
Overround-0.2%
LAS0.00

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.341
Spread
0¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 2:28:00 PM
Observability lowEvent type sports
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 2:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x3db74f14fa0c4d8acb19ff4ffa18d523597a8e553ec565d494290a908d99395a yes 100

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