What is the current probability for "Will Qatar recognize Israel by June 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Polymarket. 69 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Qatar recognize Israel by June 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 10092.7% and 28.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Qatar recognize Israel by June 30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Qatar recognize Israel by June 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Qatar recognize Israel by June 30?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 3/6¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $13,405.381·69d remaining

0x3e4f06223a50d6e551ce3bfbb2ca5861b4b08a4db8f35b6ed03530cf427c8c09

7-day price162 snapshots · 2 regime

8¢5¢ current

Apr 84¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 10092.7%

IY (No) 28.0%

Adj IY 10093%

CRI 19

RV 1301%

VR 1.53

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	10092.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	28.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	10093%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1301%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.53	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 7:07:08 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:53:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x3e4f06223a50d6e551ce3bfbb2ca5861b4b08a4db8f35b6ed03530cf427c8c09 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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