What is the current probability for "Fluent FDV above $200M one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 18¢ (18% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 619 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Fluent FDV above $200M one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 268.8% and 13.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Fluent FDV above $200M one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Fluent FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Fluent FDV above $200M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028.

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18¢

Bid/Ask 15/21¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $7,047.268·OI $16,475.288·Closes Jan 1, 2028·619d remaining

0x3e8257a0c5824d33863c76398d0dabc65c242a397b737b86700fee897bad3c2f

7-day price42 snapshots · 8 regime

25¢18¢ current

Apr 2116¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Fluent token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Fluent will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Fluent (https://x.com/fluentxyz/photo) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 268.8%

IY (No) 13.0%

Adj IY 97%

CRI 5

Overround 1.3%

LAS 0.28

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	268.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	13.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	97%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.28	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 8:24:09 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:23:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x3e8257a0c5824d33863c76398d0dabc65c242a397b737b86700fee897bad3c2f yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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