Will the Republican Party win the MI-05 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $16k open interest, suggesting the 90¢ price may not reflect true market consensus and could face significant repricing if volume materializes. The asymmetric implied yields—20.3% for Yes versus 1643% for No—indicate the No position is severely underpriced relative to risk, a classic sign of thin liquidity where a small contrarian bet could move the market substantially. With a Cliff Risk Index of 9 and 200 days to expiration, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the Republican lean may be vulnerable to shifting political conditions or late-breaking information about the MI-05 race.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade