Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)

This Bayern -2.5 spread contract is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at just 23¢, implying Bayern must win by 3+ goals in a DFB-Pokal matchup closing in 6 days. The astronomical 28,788% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and a concerning 5/5 cliff risk index suggests this is an illiquid, potentially mispriced position—the 20¢ spread is notably wide relative to the contract value. The realized volatility of 1,882% and recent price movement from 45¢ to 49¢ indicate extreme uncertainty, though this could reflect thin liquidity rather than genuine market disagreement on Bayern's probability of a dominant victory.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming DFB-Pokal game, scheduled for April 22 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "FC Bayern München" if FC Bayern München win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bayer 04 Leverkusen". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on dfb.de. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Regime

Trade