Will the Democratic Party win the WI-05 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1333.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 24.8% on the No side, suggesting the 12¢ price significantly undervalues Democratic chances in WI-05 relative to market consensus elsewhere. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $18,733 open interest and a 2¢ spread indicates illiquidity that may be distorting the price, particularly given the high cliff risk index of 7 and 201 days until resolution. The neutral regime score and substantial time horizon suggest this mispricing could persist or correct gradually as the 2026 election cycle develops and more polling data emerges.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade