Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 10?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 10?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $386k open interest and a wide 29¢ spread, suggesting the 32¢ price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $386k open interest and a wide 29¢ spread, suggesting the 32¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 299.6% implied yield on the Yes side appears inflated relative to the more modest 66.3% on the No side, likely driven by the thin order book rather than genuine probability divergence. With 259 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 1932%, the market has experienced significant price swings (17¢ to 32¢ over seven days), but the combination of zero volume, high volatility ratio (12.19x), and low cliff risk (2) suggests this is a speculative, thinly-traded position rather than an efficiently priced forecast.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one coin launched in 2026 appears in the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinGecko at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” Rankings will be determined using CoinGecko’s market capitalization rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/). Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.
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sf trade 0x45194a41a96fc3c01131698af127a03285e40a99ad4db51d0d9a6d31806e145b yes 100