Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
0x189fc3a42652bc98e40592bbdee43cb8160315310ce535a4fa37fd838da64e72 · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 259 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 498.8% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 39.7% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.14 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 562% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 2.93 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.1/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 431% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
184 indicator snapshots · 2 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x189fc3a42652bc98e40592bbdee43cb8160315310ce535a4fa37fd838da64e72 yes 100