Will the Republican Party win the ND-AL House seat?

This market reflects overwhelming confidence in Republican dominance of North Dakota's at-large House seat, with a 92¢ price implying a 92% win probability, though the extreme 2092% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity on the contrarian position. The modest $1,162 in 24-hour volume against $16.5M open interest suggests thin trading despite the large position size, and the 1¢ spread indicates reasonable liquidity at the consensus price. With 201 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the market appears stable but warrants caution given the disproportionate risk-adjusted yield (1046%) and elevated cliff risk index of 12, suggesting potential for sharp repricing if political conditions shift.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ND-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade